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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest upset.

However the current field is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans improving together. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and fun year, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still